CNH Industrial: L for Recovery: Keeping Dec 26 PT at $10

Research evidence excerpt

CNH Industrial: L for Recovery: Keeping Dec 26 PT at $10

ion sales up low to mid teens YoY in 3Q and margins

improving YoY into a LTMSD range. CNH expects dealer inventory reductions of $400-

500MM by year end with the timing weighted toward 4Q, and it reiterated that 4Q is

seasonally the strongest quarter and should not be treated as a run-rate for the full year.

CNH also described the key drivers of sequential improvement from 3Q to 4Q as higher

volumes and lower tariffs, supported by additional lift from pricing and ongoing

operational improvements, and it linked sequential 4Q pricing to MY27 pricing

beginning to take effect. On tariffs, CNH expects 3Q26 tariffs to be about flat YoY and

4Q tariffs to be slightly lower YoY, reflecting the benefit of lower Section 232 rates even

as other costs like transportation tied to shipping lane disruptions offset some of the relief,

and it reiterated it has not passed through all tariff impacts to customers. CNH also said

free cash flow should improve in 2H as working capital timing reverses versus 1H

dynamics that were pressured by trade payables, and it reminded that corporate expenses

can be volatile but are typically modeled at $55-60MM per quarter with potential 4Q

variability tied to variable compensation.

• Demand and inventory commentary varied by geography with EMEA softness the

main surprise. CNH described North America as relatively better in 2Q, with Ag sales

up 10% YoY on higher volume and pricing, although it also highlighted unfavorable mix

as large tractors declined more than small tractors, and it said dealer inventories in North

America were down sequentially as it maintains production discipline to protect pricing

and normalize the channel. CNH said EMEA demand came in softer than expected and