Allison Transmission Holdings: 2Q26 Review: Raising Estimates & Maintaining Dec 26 PT at $145

Research evidence excerpt

Allison Transmission Holdings: 2Q26 Review: Raising Estimates & Maintaining Dec 26 PT at $145

lture, while Mining remained supported by elevated

commodity prices; ALSN also highlighted more than $50MM of annual run-rate net new

program wins across Construction, Material Handling, Mining, and Agriculture in 1H.

• Looking to 2H, ALSN expects sequential improvement in Allison Transmission

Business Unit volumes, particularly in medium duty and Cl 8 vocational markets, but it

expects consolidated results to be shaped by Off-Highway seasonality, noting 3Q is

typically the weakest quarter due to a European shutdown and that nearly half of Off-

Highway revenue is generated in Europe, with a 4Q step up that still trends below 1H due

to year-end holidays. ALSN also pointed to sequential momentum in the Allison

Transmission Business Unit, including North America On-Highway revenue up 15%

sequentially in 2Q and all legacy end markets up more than 10% sequentially, while

noting tougher 1H comparisons. On regulation, ALSN said the EPA FY27 proposal

released early last month was broadly in line with market expectations, flagged emissions

warranty periods as a notable potential cost driver, and emphasized that OEMs and the

supply base are still assessing the proposal and engaging fleets, leaving uncertainty

around trade-offs between non-compliance penalties and FY27 vehicle pricing and

limiting the ability to make meaningful FY26 build plan changes late in the year; ALSN

added that it continues to see steady Cl 8 vocational demand and improving medium duty

trends, and that continued availability of FY26 engines is intended to mitigate the

magnitude of the transition relative to prior emissions changes.

• ALSN reiterated a $120MM annual run-rate synergy target across procurement and