Marriott 2Q26: Better flow through than peers on softer RevPAR, but NUG downgrade - AMENDED

Research evidence excerpt

Marriott 2Q26: Better flow through than peers on softer RevPAR, but NUG downgrade - AMENDED

STEIN FLASHMAIL

3 August 2026

Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850

Global Hotels & Leisure richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com

Marriott International Inc Niall Mitchelson

+44 20 7676 7144

Rating niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Lasith Siriwardana

Price Target +44 20 7550 2191

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

MAR 402.00 USD

Marriott 2Q26: Better flow through than peers on softer RevPAR,

but NUG downgrade - AMENDED

This note is amended to include commentary around Marriott’s revised credit card deal with JPM and American Express, which we

erroneously excluded from the initial publication (dated 3 August 2026).

Marriott reported 1Q26 this morning, there is a conference call at 8:30am ET. This was a broadly encouraging print, with better

drop through than peers from RevPAR to EBITDA but offset by a downward guidance revision on unit growth and Owned & Leased

profitability. The guidance upgrade of 1.9% on the fee business (EBITDA) is notably helped by the revised credit card deals with JPM

and American Express. This is encouraging that the deal has been signed (despite noise of fee split dispute with owners), and the size

of the deal terms (we estimate ~$100-150m on an annualized basis; assuming 75bps RevPAR guide flows through) look broadly in

line with expectations but this likely makes the FY guidance upgrade ex-Credit Card more modest and given the credit card deal was

expected likely limits upside today.

RevPAR was not as strong as peers with growth of 3.4% (the only hotel group to miss BernE = 3.7%), likely a result of different

Middle Eastern mix (down 43%). However, they take up the FY RevPAR guide by 75bps (to 3-3.5%) and even though the NUG guide