Thailand Retail: Earnings More Resilient Than Feared; Stimulus and China Recovery as Catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand Retail: Earnings More Resilient Than Feared; Stimulus and China Recovery as Catalyst

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03 Aug 2026 21:00:00 ET │ 11 pages

Thailand Retail

Earnings More Resilient Than Feared; Stimulus and China Recovery as

Catalyst

CITI'S TAKE

Thai retail stocks have recovered from the oil price-driven sell-off, led by

CRC (+47% YTD), CPN (+25% YTD), and MRDIYT (+15% YTD), reflecting a

better-than-expected 2Q26E outlook. Despite concerns over weaker Preenapa DetchsriAC

purchasing power from oil prices, we expect most retailers to deliver solid +66-2-079-3609

YoY earnings growth, supported by topline expansion, cost-saving preenapa.detchsri@citi.com

initiatives, and ongoing business transformation. Looking ahead, sector

sentiment could be supported by a potential new consumption stimulus

package or an extension and the continued recovery in Chinese tourism.

We revise our sector pecking order to CPALL > CPN > MRDIYT given their

relative underperformance. We expect CPALL's convenience store to

remain resilient under any consumption support scheme while margin

recovery following oil price normalization should help offset weaker

CPAXT earnings. We maintain our Neutral on CRC as we believe the recent

rally has largely priced in its stronger earnings recovery.

Stimulus Extension in Focus -The government has signaled a willingness to extend

or enhance consumption stimulus following positive feedback from consumers.

While no decision has been made, policymakers have left the door open for

additional support measures if economic conditions warrant them. We believe any

extension would provide an upside catalyst for FMCG producers and support

consumer spending sentiment, although direct benefits to major retailers may be

limited, except for wholesale-oriented formats.