US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

US MARKET INTELLIGENCE | AFTERNOON BRIEFING

weakness spreading across Mfg but lower magnitude than weakness seen earlier in the year.

The Prices Paid component remains a problem thought demand indicators are healthy and point

to an expansion. The combination of higher energy prices / shipping prices / tariffs, plus

uncertainty on drivers of both continues to create a headwind for businesses. Some businesses

point to the current environment as being more challenging than during COVID with some APAC

clients now shifting their supply chains to avoid tariffs. For markets, this print is supportive of risk

assets but underscores that (i) AI build is having a meaningful positive impact on the global

economy, (ii) inflation has not gone away with tariffs still a meaningful driver of prices, (iii)

geopolitical risks (energy/tariffs) remain top of mind for decision-makers. No changes to our

TACTICAL BULLISH VIEW.

• FEDSPEAKS – Remarks from Fed’s Williams (NY Fed President) today was net dovish as he

expects inflation to continue easing ("my forecast personally is for inflation to come down in ⁠the

second half of this year and come down further next year." RTRS).

• JPY INTERVENTION (JUNYA TANASE; here) – Some excerpts from Tanase-san’s note below:

o Historically, coordinated intervention has only been conducted during crises; we had

viewed the likelihood of such action under current conditions as low. However, the

cooperative posture of US and Japanese authorities to prevent yen depreciation appears

to be considerably stronger than we had expected.

o According to FT’s reporting, this time the US yen-buying appears to have been conducted

not against USD but against EUR. This suggests that the purpose of US intervention was