EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve Report

Research evidence excerpt

EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve Report

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

04 August 2026

EM USD 10s30s Spread Curve

Report

EM Curves Steepen Across the Board

• EM curves steepened in a broad-based move, reversing consecutive Emerging Markets Strategy

AC months of subdued flattening. The EM aggregate 10s30s curve bear Ankit Chawla

steepened by 4bp to 71bp over the past month, driven by both EM HY (91-22) 6157-3281

steepening by 4bp m/m to 85bp and EM IG spread curve steepening by 4bp ankit.chawla@jpmchase.com

m/m to 65bp. The EMBIG curve followed the overall bear steepening move, J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

widening by 4bp to 74bp, with consistent moves across all regions and issuer Nishant M Poojary, CFA

types. Over the past month, the UST 10s30s curve steepened 5bp to 53bp, while (44 20) 3493-3859

nishant.m.poojary@jpmorgan.com

the US HG 10s30s curve steepened by 1bp to 19bp. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• CEMBI 10s30s curves also steepened +5bp m/m to 62bp, though with a Emerging Markets Corporate

mixed dynamic of bull steepening in Latin America versus bear Strategy

steepening in the rest of the regions. There was an interesting divergence of Yang-Myung Hong

bear steepening in commodities related issuers and China internet names (1-212) 834-4274

versus bull steepening or flattening in the other credits. Such differentiation ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

may reflect macro uncertainty on cyclical credits, with rate volatility adding to J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

the curve's impact. We do not favor long-dated bonds given the relatively Global Index Research

modest level of the 10s30s spread on average and our rate strategists’ Pallav Poddar

expectation of further rise in UST yields. (44 20) 3493-5201

pallav.poddar@jpmorgan.com