Mexico: Banxico survey — Inflation expectations cool towards year-end

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico: Banxico survey — Inflation expectations cool towards year-end

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

03 August 2026

Mexico

Banxico survey — Inflation expectations cool towards

year-end

• Annual inflation expectations for 2026 down to 4.0% from 4.20% EM, Economics Research

• Growth forecasts revised up, with 2026 consensus at 1.2%y/y from 1.1% Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• Monetary policy expected to remain on hold for the rest of the year at 6.5% gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• Analyst sentiment shows some improvement but remains pessimistic BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

The July Banxico analyst report delivered encouraging results for both year-end Santiago Homberg Saury

inflation and growth, although for longer tenors, results were mixed. It followed (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

a benign inflation print for the 1H of July and 2Q Flash GDP released in the last J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

couple of weeks. Headline inflation expectations continue to reverse the uptrend Morgan Grupo Financiero

seen earlier this year, pulling year-end headline inflation down by over 20bps in

both average and median terms to 3.92%oya and 4.00%, respectively.

The survey consensus remains above our 3.9% forecast and Banxico’s 3.5%. The

probability distributions released within the survey now have the 3.6%-4.0%

bracket for year-end inflation as the central scenario, down from the 4.1%-4.5%

bracket released back in June.

Headline inflation scenarios distribution

%probability

Jun 26 3.9%oya JPM's

40 Jul 26

2.6-3.0 3.1-3.5 3.6-4.0 4.1-4.5 4.6-5.0 More than

5.0

Source: Banxico. Year-end inflation for 2026

Notably, looking at the last 12-month median expectations, both headline and core