JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

JAPAN FIRST TO MARKET

Akira Kishimoto AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(81-3) 6736-8646 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

akira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.com

billion, down 7.4% YoY, counting on a 2Q catch-up (our estimate ¥140.9 billion, consensus ¥142.4 billion). International

operations remained strong, but the company estimates that recouping the 1Q shortfall by 2Q requires Singapore kerosene,

now around $150, to fall to roughly $120 by September. The guidance miss versus expectations did not come as a surprise.

Tokyo Century (8439) (Koki Sato) (8439 JP, OW)

1Q results: Returns from off-balance sheeting ACG will depend on future investment performance

Neutral: Net profit grew 59% YoY to ¥35.1 billion in 1Q, achieving 29% of FY2026 guidance and surpassing our estimate of

¥28.1 billion. Aircraft and ship sale gains in the transport segment were higher than expected. Tokyo Century announced on

August 3 that it will make Aviation Capital Group (ACG) a joint business with Itochu. We consider this is a reasonable strategy

from a longer-term perspective, but believe it could be hard to view positively given the lack of visibility for investors about direct

returns such as a partial distribution of unlocked capital.

Nissan Motor (7201) (Akira Kishimoto) (7201 JP, N)

1Q results: Underlying earnings at break-even; focus on scope for price hikes in the US market

Neutral: Nissan Motor reported 1Q operating profit of ¥77.9 billion, above the Bloomberg consensus estimate, but largely

because of US tariff refunds, and the underlying result seems to have been close to break-even. We think the stock market had

already factored in 1Q’s thin earnings, but results likely leave lingering uncertainties about full-year operating profit guidance of

¥200 billion.