J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI: Moderation to still-solid growth in July

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI: Moderation to still-solid growth in July

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 Alex Gallin (1-212) 270-5492 Global Economic Research J P M O R G A Njoseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 03 August 2026

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Global capture the upswing and, at 52.7, the index is consistent with

a 2.5%ar pace of growth in global factory output—a touch

Manufacturing PMI below our 3% forecast. That is not too far off so long as the

index arrests the momentum loss in the coming months. The

Moderation to still-solid growth in July rebound in labor markets underway alongside last quarter’s

strong stock market gains and the fall back in energy pricesThe boom in global industry earlier this year is moderating

should keep goods spending well supported.but still points to solid growth entering 2H26 in response to

continued robust gains in final goods demand. The J.P. Mor-

Manufacturing output PMIgan global manufacturing output PMI moderated 0.3-point to

DI, sa52.7 in July, a second consecutive decline from its May high. Rest of

Nevertheless, the index still suggests a strong pace of expan- 58 EM Asia US

sion in global manufacturing. Forward-looking indicators

54 China

continue to send mixed signals: the future output PMI ticked

up from an eight-month low, while the new orders PMI lost 50

further ground from its recent peak. Still, with inventory

building slowing from already lean levels, the signal to manu- 46 Japan

Westernfacturers is to keep the pace of production up. Both the input Europe

and output price PMIs continued to fall but remain above 42

their pre-conflict levels. 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan. Note: Rest of EM Asia excludes India.