China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 60): A tentative recovery in oil imports

Research evidence excerpt

China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 60): A tentative recovery in oil imports

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

04 August 2026

China alt-data trackers chartpack

(Series 60)

A tentative recovery in oil imports

Our 2H growth recovery call hinges on stronger fiscal support and continued export Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

resilience. However, the softer-than-expected July PMIs suggest growth entered the and Policy Research

current quarter on a weaker footing than anticipated. We have updated our alt-data Tingting Ge

trackers (vs. our last update) and our key takeaways are below. (852) 2800-0143

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

• Exports: Port operations have largely normalized after severe weather Jiayi Li

disruptions in mid-July. Port tracking points to a further pick-up in export (852) 2800-5229

volume growth, as departing ships’ deadweight tonnage (excluding tankers) jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

rose 21.3%oya in July (vs. 17.2% in June). This was mainly boosted by bulk Tongfang Yuan

shipping with a swift recovery after the typhoon disruption, but container (852) 2800-0085

shipping softened significantly. tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

• Oil tanker arrivals recovered in the second half of July, down ~5%oya for the

month (partly on a low base), compared to >35% contraction in June.

• CCFI to USEC, USWC fell 1.1%, 1.7%, respectively, compared to two weeks

ago; CCFI to the Persian Gulf/Red Sea route dropped 8.3%.

• Production: Processed crude oil production contraction may have narrowed

in July (vs -17.7%oya in June), as petroleum asphalt plants’ operating rates

continued to recover and crude oil imports recovered in the second half of July.

Auto production volume decline may have widened (vs -0.2% in June) while