Model Updates: Life Science Tools & Diagnostics | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Model Updates: Life Science Tools & Diagnostics | North America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Guardant Health Inc. (GH.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Reported tests to clinical customers 276,138 413,791 532,183 638,490

Reported tests to biopharma

45,532 53,298 59,004 65,372

customers

Total revenue ($, mm) 982.0 1,356.5 1,790.8 2,263.1

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Liquid biopsy testing gained robust traction in RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

the high-growth cancer diagnostics market Faster clinical trial progression with strong

GH has generated robust evidence supporting positive data leads to faster adoption of liquid Sales /

use of its tests, driving traction in the clinic biopsy Revenue 1,303 1,357

Strong demand for liquid biopsy based CGP in Products are reimbursed sooner than expected ($, mm) 1,314

the biopharma space Indication expansion proceeds faster than

expected

(260)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBIT (360) (172)

($, mm)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Delays in reimbursement (220) 0-10% China and India Inability to compete/keep share vs. new

0-10% Europe ex UK products and/or emerging players in the liquid

0-10% Japan biopsy space EPS (1.69)

0-10% MEA Potential loss in patent infringement lawsuits ($) (1.76) (1.25)

0-10% UK (1.42)

90-100% North America

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 71.2% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 17.5%

3/5 24 Month 3/5 3 Month Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon exposures held with MSPB. Information may be