MCED: Quantifying the Risks & Opportunities Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

MCED: Quantifying the Risks & Opportunities Ahead

Foundation

June 18, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMLife Science Tools & Diagnostics | North America Kallum L Titchmarsh

Equity Analyst

MCED: Quantifying the Risks & Kallum.Titchmarsh@morganstanley.comJakob Dodd +1 212 761-2351

Research Associate

Jakob.Dodd@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0797

Opportunities Ahead Jason Lai

Jason.Lai@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4848

Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are among the most

Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

captivating diagnostic tools at the forefront of population North America

health. With meaningful developments beginning to unfold Industry View In-Line

across the space, we set out to put numbers and timelines to

the path ahead.

Key Takeaways

We estimate the real-world US market opportunity for MCED at ~$25-35bn per

year.

We're cautiously optimistic on FDA approval and CMS coverage, but we think

phase-in will be slow even assuming timely coverage beginning January 2029.

Our GRAL '29 & '30 revenue is stepping down on our updated US market build,

but $60 PT is unchanged due to higher growth in '35+ sustaining the terminal

value.

Our base case is long-term ASP compression to ~$560 driven by CMS comprising

the vast majority of volumes.

Physician channel checks clearly point to a low ceiling on penetration until much

broader coverage is in place.

Although real progress has been made in finding and treating cancer more

effectively in recent decades, it remains the #2 cause of death in the US (only a

bit behind the ~700k deaths per year from heart disease). Nearly 70% of US cancer

deaths are attributable to cancer types not covered by the existing 4-5 screening

programs that have reached population-scale (CRC, breast, lung, cervical, and