GSK (O): Why is the new CEO‘s transformation underappreciated?

Research evidence excerpt

GSK (O): Why is the new CEO‘s transformation underappreciated?

Justin Smith +44 20 7762 5899 justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com 3 August 2026

DETAILS

‘ACCELERATE GROWTH’ TOP LINE OUTLOOK POST 2031 PERIOD IMPLIES MATERIAL UPSIDE:

WHY DO WE THINK THE MID-TERM GUIDANCE IS ACHIEVABLE?

EXHIBIT 1: GSK now expects accelerating growth from 2031

Source: GSK

At the CMD on 28/7/26 GSK’s new CEO (Luke Miels; GSK’s former Chief Commercial Officer) introduced a new aspiration for

the company’s sales to flat line through the HIV patent expiries (2028-30) associated with tablet dolutegravir (DTG; the active

pharmaceutical ingredient in Tivicay, Triumeq, Juluca, and Dovato). In addition, Mr Miels emphasized that group sales growth will

then accelerate from 2031 (Exhibit 1).

To recap, GSK introduced its original 2031 sales target (>£33bn) at its June-21 CMD at which point the consensus forecast was

in the low to mid £20bn’s. Management has since increased this target twice: to >£38bn in conjunction with the 4Q23 results

and then to >£40bn to accompany the 4Q24 results. The current consensus 2031 group sales forecast for GSK (Bloomberg)

is £37bn which equates to a ca. 40% increase since this target was first introduced. We thus believe that GSK’s track record on

mid-term guidance is credible.

In our view consensus projects negative sales growth for GSK 2030-2035e inclusive because it’s underestimating the

sustainability of the HIV franchise and the prospects for the rest of the pipeline (Exhibit 2). As described in our 25th June GSK

HIV report (read here), following a thorough assessment of GSK’s long acting HIV pipeline, we believe that the long term

prospects for this franchise are materially underappreciated (Exhibit 4). This is because investors are underestimating the