GSK (O): now a sustainable growth stock (post an HIV deep dive)?

Research evidence excerpt

GSK (O): now a sustainable growth stock (post an HIV deep dive)?

25 June 2026

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Justin Smith

+44 20 7762 5899

European Biopharmaceuticals justin.smith@bernsteinsg.com

Shan MianGSK plc +44 20 7676 8981

Rating shan.mian@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Maximilian Brewster

+44 20 7550 2193

Price Target maximilian.brewster@bernsteinsg.com

GSK.LN 2,825.00 GBp (2,630.00 OLD) Specialist Sales

Christian Moore

+1 917 344 8555

christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com

Post our HIV ‘deep dive’ we raise our adj. ‘26-35e EPS by upto 25% and now project growth

Close Date 24 Jun 2026

every year ‘26-35e (vs ‘ex-growth’ 32-35e prev.). Hence, our new adj EPSe are upto 25% >

GSK.LN Close Price (GBp) 1,950.00

consensus (BBG). Our new adj. EPS CAGR (26-31e) of 9% is now ‘in-line’ with EU peers and,

Price Target (GBp) 2,825.00

on PE30e, our new £28.25 PT (up 7%) implies a 4% premium. But this all excludes the £7bn

Upside/(Downside) 45%

Nuvalent (M; Jeffrey Walch) M&A for which we project adj EPS accretion of upto 10%.

52-Week Range 2,282.00/1,315.00

Why are our ‘26-36e group sales & adj EPS rising by upto 14% & 25% respectively? EDME 1,578.05

Post a ‘deep-dive’ into HIV (25% of GSK’s ‘25A sales) we’ve introduced estimates for 3 FYE Dec

key ‘long acting’ injectable (LA; quality of life ‘step-up’ vs daily tablets) HIV pipeline drugs: Div Yield 3.4%

1/ Cabenuva 4QM (3x/year; in ph3; 2028e launch; 80% probability of success (POS); 2/ Market Cap (GBP) (M) 78,906

Apretude 4QM (2H26 ph3 readout; 2027e launch; 80% POS)); 3/VH184 (in late ph2; 2031e EV (GBp) (M) 94,089

launch; 40% POS) is injected 2x/year, has the lowest economic payaways to Shionogi (M; Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

Sogi) and a 2040s patent expiry (vs 2031 for the other two LA HIV drugs). Thus, we now Absolute (%) 6.9 1.8 8.0 38.3