Lear Corporation: 2Q In-line; 2027 Outlook Muted as Backlog Mix Suggests Delayed Ramp (in 2028/2029)

Research evidence excerpt

Lear Corporation: 2Q In-line; 2027 Outlook Muted as Backlog Mix Suggests Delayed Ramp (in 2028/2029)

8 EBITDA estimates, using a 5.0x multiple, largely in line with the stock’s

current NTM ~5.1x multiple. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)

• Early 2027 outlook suggests muted growth with inflection in 2028/2029. 2025A 2026E 2027E

Management guided to limited growth in 2027 despite a core backlog of >$700 Q1 3.12 3.87A 3.66

Q2 3.47 4.28A 4.54

mn, with the non-core electronics products wind-down a $235 mn revenue Q3 2.79 3.54 3.63

headwind next year vs. $90 mn in 2026, alongside several platform-level Q4 3.41 3.75 4.68

production headwinds including JLR lapping an unusually strong recovery FY 12.80 15.45 16.50

year from the 2025 cyber disruption, Ford Explorer and STLA Jeep Grand

Style Exposure

Wagoneer pulling back, GM full-size truck and SUV volumes flat through the

model changeover and Orion launch before stepping up in 2028, and continued

China domestic weakness affecting European customers. The 2026-2028

backlog remains $400 mn better than at the start of the year, though now

weighted more to 2028 than initially expected. Growth over market returns in

2028 and more materially in 2029, which LEA characterized as the year the full

revenue and earnings power of recent awards shows up, with the 2029 backlog

described as very likely better than either 2027 or 2028. LEA is targeting a

return to its historical 3-4 pts of growth over market in the 2028-2030 window.

Implied2H26&2026Guidancevs.priorJPMe/Consensus). Implied 2H• 2H26 bridge suggests large decrements on vol/mix (Table 2LEA

revenue of ~$11,743 mn is broadly in line with JPMe $11,753 mn / consensus

$11,761 mn, while implied EBIT of ~$530 mn at mid-point was below JPMe