Euro area: Final manufacturing PMI largely unchanged

Research evidence excerpt

Euro area: Final manufacturing PMI largely unchanged

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

03 August 2026

Euro area: Final manufacturing

PMI largely unchanged

As the conflict in the Middle East gradually escalated through the month of July, Economic and Policy Research

we were concerned that the final composite PMI – where the flash reading was Mariana Monteiro

consistent with growth running close to 1.5%ar – could be revised lower, with the (44 20) 3493-5147

price indicators revised higher. The first test came from the manufacturing survey mariana.reispaivamonteiro@jpmorgan.com

released earlier today, which was largely unchanged in the final release relative to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the flash report. This increases our confidence in the flash signal from the

composite indicator, although some risk of a downward revision remains in the

final release once services are updated, since services appeared to take the largest

hit at the onset of the conflict.

In today’s release, the output indicator was revised 0.1pt lower to 52.9, but this still

left the indicator 1.2pts above June and signalled industrial output growth of

1.3%3m/3m ar. This is the strongest signal since early 2022 and is largely driven

by Germany. Earlier in the year, the German PMI report signalled that the upturn

in industry was supported by customers rushing to build inventories ahead of

potential price rises and bottlenecks, and by German industry remaining more

insulated than Asian competitors from supply disruptions. This could partly

explain the gradual recovery in export orders, up 3pts since January, although

anecdotal evidence around that has diminished. The supportive fiscal backdrop has

also been benefiting the sector, with firms continuing to highlight orders related to