Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

Research evidence excerpt

Citi‘s Most Read – Economics

5 Core PCE 5 Core PCE

Core CPI Core CPI

4 Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE 4.5 Core PCE Forecast w/o revisions

avg SF Fed Cyclical PCE Core PCE Forecast w/ revisions

YoY 3 Cleveland Median PCE 4 Core CPI Forecast

2019 Atl Fed Wage Tracker

3.5 from 2 YoY%

1 3 devition

pp

0 2.5

-1

Jan-17 Jul-18 Jan-20 Jul-21 Jan-23 Jul-24 Jan-26 2

Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook & Strategy - Artificial Intelligence and the

EM Growth Divide

Flagship

There are only a few potential EM winners (Taiwan, Korea, Singapore) in the US-led

AI capex cycle, but if the 1990s IT revolution were any guide, prospects for future

productivity gains could accrue more to the “users” versus “producers”. Here too,

EM looks relatively disadvantaged vs DM, as AI adoption prospects remain highly

correlated with per capita GDP through digital-infra/skills, and occupational

structure’s readiness for AI disruption. China’s lower-cost “frugal stack” could

accelerate AI diffusion across EM but its benefits are likely to be unevenly

distributed to a few. It is too early to assess labor-market effects, but abundance

of young job-seekers in Africa & Asia is a challenge. AI could narrow the skills-gap

between DM and EM, but overall effects are unlikely to be large enough vs

displacement and commodification of lower skilled tasks. India’s business

process outsourcing services export growth remains very resilient, while

Philippines’ is slowing sharply.

Johanna Chua | Ernesto Revilla | Gina Schoeman | Yuanliu Hu | Luis E Costa, CFA

US Economics - The Daily Update - Can the Fed surprise us?

We expect the Fed to hold policy rates steady. A surprise hike would be oddly

timed following softer core CPI and inflation breakevens reflecting expectations

for subdued inflation.