HG & HY Consumer Checkup: Under Pressure: Tariffs, Thin Volumes and Pricing Holding It Together!

Research evidence excerpt

HG & HY Consumer Checkup: Under Pressure: Tariffs, Thin Volumes and Pricing Holding It Together!

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

03 August 2026

HG & HY Consumer Checkup

Under Pressure: Tariffs, Thin Volumes and Pricing

Holding It Together!

North America Corporate Credit - Equities outperformed against credit (HY > HG) in a generally positive

Consumer, Retailing, and Food &

week. The S&P gained +1.05% on the week, led by TMT as strong Amazon Beverage

cloud growth and Microsoft results reassured investors that elevated AI

Yaakov Musheyev AC spending is translating into earnings and cash flow, more than offsetting Apple’s

(1-212) 834 5865

weaker supply-constrained outlook and continued semiconductor volatility. yaakov.a.musheyev@jpmorgan.com

Middle East headlines drove significant oil volatility, as crude fell early on a

Carla Casella, CFA

pause in U.S. strikes and hopes for Iran talks, but rebounded as Strait of Hormuz (1-212) 270-6798

disruptions persisted, keeping inflation and rates risks elevated and tempering carla.casella@jpmorgan.com

the otherwise constructive credit backdrop. Next week’s data release includes J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Initial Jobless Claims (est 202k, prior 197k), Change in Nonfarm payrolls (est

80k, prior 57k) and Unemployment Rate (est 4.2%, prior 4.2%). Treasuries bull

steepened on the week (front end rallied and long end sold off), with the 5yr -2bps Ratings

to 4.40% and the 10yr +2bps to 4.69%. The JULI was flat this week, with HG HY Consumer Neutral

Consumer Products and Tobacco both slightly outperforming at +0.1%. COTY Overweight

CRI Neutral

JPHY returned +0.17%, with HY Consumer Products outperforming at EPC Neutral

+0.69%. By ratings, As and BBBs were both flat, while BBs +0.12%, Bs ENR Neutral

LEVI Neutral