J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

03 August 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

$17bn supply on tap. Updated rate/total-return

forecasts suggest limiting duration. Prepay market

update.

Securitized Products & Public – Market participants interpreted the Fed Chair’s comments doubting the Fed’s

Finance Municipals Strategy

inflation-fighting tools and reduced commitment to the 2% target as signaling

firmer inflation ahead. We expect the Fed to defend its credibility and thus pull Peter DeGroot AC

forward our expectation for the next rate hike to December this year, versus (1-212) 834-7293

peter.degroot@jpmorgan.com

2H27 prior.

Ye Tian

– Our rates team shifted their year-end forecast for 10-year and 30-year UST (1-212) 834-3051

rates higher by 11bp and 13bp, respectively, leaving 2-5-year rates largely ye.tian@jpmorgan.com

unchanged. We look for a more severe steepening of 27bp in the 5% AAA Roisin A Gargan

muni curve by year-end. We forecast the weakest performance will be in (1-212) 834-7010

roisin.gargan@jpmchase.com

25-years and longer on the curve. The strongest area of the curve is projected J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

to be from 3-16-years.

– This week’s massive calendar is expected to come in around ~$17.2bn tax-

exempt (5th highest on record), which, combined with the post-FOMC rise in

rates, should likely create a buyers’ market even as strong reinvestment capital

arrives ($32bn over 1H August marks the 2nd highest two-week stretch of the

year).

– Together with elevated secondary trading over the month, should create

opportunities to move the needle on portfolio composition and pare weaker

structures or declining credits.

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap