JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Market Buo(YEN)cy

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Market Buo(YEN)cy

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

03 August 2026

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Geopolitical/Crude noise continues: >5% drawdown sounds overzealous, but range-bound $75-90 view still intact, with

crude vol compression near-term but re-escalation remaining a cheap tail hedge

Rates are still a key risk transmission mechanism for markets: Unprecedented US-Japan JPY coordination matters

insofar as it (ideally) keeps UST selling pressure contained. The bond market is now setting financial conditions, and that has

the capacity to weigh on long-duration growth.

Semis/Momentum flush was positioning-driven but macro can’t be fully absolved: Strong earnings-implied CAPEX and

a cleaner positioning setup is supportive for Momentum, but longer-term elevated positioning amidst bond vol means the

trade isn’t yet an unequivocal buy

Market narratives continue to go in circles (on/off Middle East tension, on/off momentum scare, on/off yen intervention being

negative)

The weekend brought another US-Iran "deal on the way” amidst a lack of US airstrikes, which is healthfully weighing on crude

markets. We've seen this un-resolved play before, so while a >5% drawdown in crude is certainly welcome, it appears somewhat

overzealous. The prevailing explanation is that this is a knee-jerk reaction to revoking “risk of damage to critical energy

infrastructure.” I continue to believe the best way to think about crude right now is that it will oscillate in a higher ($75-90) range

for the forseeable future. This is enough to apply moderate inflation pressure, but not quite the same risk as earlier this year when