Key focus and themes

Research evidence excerpt

Key focus and themes

Global Markets Research

Key focus and themes 31 July 2026

Foreign Exchange - Asia ex-Japan/Euro Area/Europe

Less USD supportive factors; higher convictions Research Analysts

on long CNH and short IDR Global FX Strategy

Craig Chan - NSLWhat minimum gain in the upcoming July NFP (released on 7 August; consensus ~88K)

craig.chan@nomura.com

will be required to see a break HIGHER in the broad USD (DXY)?

+65 6433 6106

1. ~55k Yujiro Goto - NSC

yujiro.goto@nomura.com

2. ~100k

+81 3 6703 1120

3. ~150k Dominic Bunning - NIplc

dominic.bunning@nomura.com

4. 200k or more

+44 (0) 20 7102 4063

Wee Choon Teo - NSL

weechoon.teo@nomura.com

• We see an increasing risk of the USD losing its upward momentum after the July +65 6433 6107

FOMC meeting. Factors include near-term US macro/policy outlook, Fed credibility, Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

tech/AI-related risks slowing US equity inflows and long USD positioning/Japan FX yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

actions. Trump may also limit the risk of a US-Iran conflict escalating, while the +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

sensitivity of DXY to higher oil prices has fallen. Vicky Chen - NSL

• Asia FX: We raised the conviction levels on our long SGD/IDR and short USD/CNH vicky.chen1@nomura.com

positions to 4/5 on 27 and 30 July, respectively. We remain long EUR/INR and short +65 6433 6540

USD/THB (both at 3/5). Manthan Shingala - NSL

manthan.shingala1@nomura.com

• G10 FX: We enter long EUR/JPY (conviction level 3/5) after MOF intervention, despite +65 6433 6427

the BOJ’s hawkish rhetoric, as we still believe JPY fundamentals have not materially

Asia Rates Strategy

changed. We also stay short GBP/NZD (3/5) with the BoE remaining dovish and long

Albert Leung - NIHK

EUR/CAD (3/5), as euro area data continue their resurgence.