US: July Employment Preview

Research evidence excerpt

US: July Employment Preview

Global Markets Research

31 July 2026Economic Insights

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

US: July Employment Preview North America Economics

Ruchir Sharma - NSI

• We expect headline payroll growth accelerated to 130k in July from 57k in June. ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

Service sector surveys have improved, while continuing claims trended lower through +1 212 667 9186

the survey reference week, pointing to firmer hiring. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• We expect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, with risks skewed to +1 212 667 9637

the upside. Although the recent decline in the u-rate was noisy, labor market

Aichi Amemiya - NSI fundamentals appear somewhat stronger as layoffs remain subdued.

aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

• We expect average hourly earnings (AHE) growth slowed to 0.2% m-o-m from 0.3% in +1 212 667 9347

June. A negative calendar effect and risks of an uptick in the average workweek

support our forecast.

• Although July labor market data have surprised to the downside in the past two years,

wedonotseestrongevidenceofresidualseasonality in payrolls or the

unemployment rate. Unlike recent years, there are few signs of broader labor market

weakness heading into the report.

• Overall, we think resilient labor market conditions should keep the Fed focused on

inflation risks.

Fig. 1: We expect payroll gains accelerated to 130k in July

Nomura’s forecasts

July

Employment indicator Units Mar Apr May Jun

Nomura Consensus*

Nonfarm 000s 214 148 129 57 130 85

Private 000s 202 150 97 49 120 86

Average hourly earnings % m-o-m 0.215 0.161 0.267 0.347 0.2 0.3

Average weekly hours Level 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3

Unemployment rate % 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3

Unrounded % 4.256 4.337 4.296 4.189