Matsuzawa‘s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa‘s View: Macro Strategy Weekly

Global Markets Research

Matsuzawa's View: Macro Strategy Weekly 31 July 2026

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsHow serious is the Takaichi administration about

Strategycurbing JPY weakness?

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

With tech company earnings largely over, focus shifts to tech corporate naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

bond issuance +81 3 6703 3864

• This author expects equities to be flat, bonds soft, USD firm, and JPY soft in the week

of 3 August.

• With tech company earnings largely behind us, attention likely to shift to tech

corporate bond issuance and the market’s capacity to absorb it.

• Tech corporate bond spreads widen, but credit tightening concerns are minimal if bank

stocks remain solid.

• The Takaichi administration looks set to maintain its reflationary policy for the time

being, causing the effects of the FX intervention to fade.

• Concerns about reflation policy mistakes are likely to stall overseas capital inflows into

Japanese markets.

A week that will test the government’s resolve to stem JPY weakness

In the week of 3 August, the main theme is likely to be the possibility that the BOJ and Fed

will fall behind the curve. Sub-themes include US economic resilience, the reality of

September rate hikes in the US and Japan, the seriousness of efforts to stem JPY

weakness, concerns about reflation policy and overseas investors pulling away from the

Japanese market, tech corporate bond issuance and credit spreads, and the resilience of

bank stocks and a credit contraction. The key factors to watch in the US are Fedspeak,

the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcements, and the release of the ISM

manufacturing and services PMI, and the jobs report. In Japan, the 10yr and 30yr JGB