Nippon Television Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Nippon Television Holdings

Global Markets Research

31 July 2026Nippon Television Holdings

9404.T 9404 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN MEDIA

RatingWe await release of new capital policy Remains Neutral

Target price

Profits undershoot our forecast on heavy FIFA World Cup production Reduced from 3,400 JPY 3,050

costs but we only fine-tune full-year forecasts

Closing price JPY 2,916.0We retain Neutral rating, see few catalysts as Middle East conflict drags on 31 July 2026

Nippon Television Holdings reported 27/3 Q1 operating profits of ¥11.1bn (down 37% y-y),

Implied upside +4.6%undershooting our forecast of ¥13.4bn and the 31 July QUICK consensus forecast of

¥12.0bn. The shortfall versus our forecast was due in large part to program production

costs related to the FIFA World Cup being higher than we had expected. Even so, we only

fine-tune our consolidated profit forecasts, as we see room for the company to regain lost

Relative performance chartground over the full year, and we also revise our profit forecasts for subsidiaries. We see

few positive catalysts for the share price given the increasing uncertainty about the

advertising market as the Iran conflict drags on. We trim our target price to reflect the

decline in market-average multiples and retain our Neutral rating.

We forecast a medium-term adjusted EPS CAGR of 4.4% through 32/3 (over the 27/3

baseline), lower than the 6–7% for the Russell/Nomura Large Cap Index (ex financials).

We obtain our target price of ¥3,050 by multiplying our 27/3 adjusted EPS forecast of

¥196.2 by a P/E of 15–16x, a roughly 20% discount to the benchmark average of around

19x to factor in the risk of a negative impact on the advertising market from the ongoing

conflict in Iran.

We fine-tune our consolidated operating profit forecasts