Intervention paved the way for a live September BOJ policy meeting: Key events next week: Further intervention risk, details on consumption tax cut policy, GPIF’s investment results for Q2 FY26

Research evidence excerpt

Intervention paved the way for a live September BOJ policy meeting: Key events next week: Further intervention risk, details on consumption tax cut policy, GPIF’s investment results for Q2 FY26

Global Markets Research

JPY Weekly 1 August 2026

Foreign Exchange - Global

Intervention paved the way for a live September Research Analysts

BOJ policy meeting Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Key events next week: Further intervention risk, details on consumption yujiro.goto@nomura.com

tax cut policy, GPIF’s investment results for Q2 FY26 +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• A surprisingly hawkish signal was delivered from Governor Ueda at the July MPM,

yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

making the September policy meeting “live”. We will be closely monitoring CGPI data +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

and growth data into the September meeting for the BOJ’s actual rate hike.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• However, the BOJ may need a de facto approval from the government to open the tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

door further for a September hike. In this regard, whether there is a Takaichi-Ueda +81 3 6703 1427

meeting in August will be key. Yuki Kodera - NSC

yuki.kodera@nomura.com

• Following the likely interventions by the MOF on 30-31 July, we entered a tactical long

+81 3 6703 1281

EUR/JPY , as we believe intervention on its own won’t change the trend of the

exchange rate. The biggest risk is the US Treasury’s involvement on JPY intervention.

• JPY week ahead: The key focus will be whether there will be further interventions. On

fiscal policy, we will look for more details on the consumption tax debate, if any. We

will also get the GPIF’s investment results for the April-June period, but this will be the

result before Finance Minister Katayama mentioned in July the fund’s potential