26/12 Q2 results: We forecast business profit growth in 26/12 Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

26/12 Q2 results: We forecast business profit growth in 26/12 Quick Note

Global Markets Research

31 July 2026Otsuka Holdings

4578.T 4578 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN PHARMACEUTICALS

26/12 Q2 results: We forecast business profit Rating Neutralgrowth in 26/12

Target price JPY 11,000Quick Note

Closing price

31 July 2026 JPY 11,100First impression positive: Company raises 26/12 guidance, takes proactive stance

on shareholder returns (Note: Quick Note reports are not a

On 31 July, the company released Apr–Jun 2026 (Q2) results and held a briefing. We take vehicle for changes to ratings, target

a positive view of results given the upward revision to 26/12 guidance, which is higher prices, or earnings forecasts)

than our forecast, to reflect delays in the launch of generics and solid sales of mainstay

products such as Voyxact (IgA nephropathy) and Rexulti (schizophrenia).

(1) Apr–Jun business profits came in at ¥157.6bn (up 35.5% y-y), beating our forecast

of ¥113.7bn by ¥43.9bn, in line with revised guidance disclosed on 28 July. Advertising Research Analysts

and sales promotion costs were higher than we had expected, but royalty revenues and Japan pharmaceuticals &

Voyxaxt sales were respectively ¥17.7bn and ¥4.2bn higher than we expected. (2) The healthcare

company raised its 26/12 guidance for sales from ¥2.52trn to ¥2.73trn (up 10.4%) and for Hiroyuki Matsubara, Ph.D. - NSC

business profits from ¥355.0bn to ¥470.0bn (up 5.4%), versus our respective forecasts of hiroyuki.matsubara@nomura.com

¥2.61trn and ¥428.4bn. The upward revision to sales guidance is mainly attributable to +81 3 6703 1240

raised sales forecasts for Samsca/Jynarque (autosomal dominant polycystic kidney

disease) from ¥74.0bn to ¥134.0bn (our forecast: ¥110.0bn), for Abilify Maintena