Goldcrest

Research evidence excerpt

Goldcrest

Global Markets Research

1 August 2026Goldcrest

8871.T 8871 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN HOUSING & REAL ESTATE

RatingWe raise our operating profit forecasts Remains Buy

Target price

Increased from 4,270 JPY 4,290Revising forecasts to update gains on sale of land in Koto Ward

Closing price JPY 3,245We raise our operating profit forecasts and reiterate our Buy rating 31 July 2026

In light of 27/3 Q1 results, we raise our full-year 27/3 forecasts. We retain our target price

Implied upside +32.2%calculation methodology, but nudge up our target price to reflect changes to our NAV forecast

resulting from upward revisions to our earnings forecasts. We reiterate our Buy rating on the

prospect of longer-term profit growth thanks to the company's still plentiful development

pipeline.

Relative performance chart

Gains on sale of land in Koto Ward exceed our forecast

In 27/3 Q1, operating profits rose 132% y-y to ¥8.9bn, ¥2.1bn higher than our ¥6.8bn forecast.

This was mainly due to gains of ¥8.6bn on the sale of business land in Koto Ward, ¥2.4bn

higher than we had expected. While we reflect the higher-than-expected gains on the sale of

business land in our forecasts, we raise our 27/3 operating profit forecast by only ¥0.9bn to

¥16.8bn, as initial guidance had already factored in these gains, and because we lower our

assumption for the 27/3 average selling price of completed condos, from ¥100mn to ¥90mn,

given that our revised forecasts are based on the expectation that the company will be pushing

ahead with selling completed condos that have lower selling prices. We lower our 28/3 selling

price forecast at the same time, but raise our sales volume forecast and retain our operating

profit forecasts for 28/3 onwards. Contract signings fell 48% y-y to 45 in Q1, but we retain our