Central Japan Railway

Research evidence excerpt

Central Japan Railway

Global Markets Research

31 July 2026Central Japan Railway

9022.T 9022 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

RatingWe raise our forecasts on strong shinkansen

Remains Neutralrevenues

Target price

We await financial simulation update along with announcement of start Increased from 4,400 JPY 4,500

date for Chuo Shinkansen

Closing price JPY 3,988We remain Neutral, raise our forecasts 31 July 2026

We retain our Neutral rating on Central Japan Railway. The company released Apr–Jun

Implied upside +12.8%results after the close on 31 July, followed by a briefing at 18:10 JST. We have three

takeaways from the results and the briefing. (1) Rail revenues were up 1% y-y in Apr–Jun

(down 4% in a fallback from Expo 2025 Osaka, up 2% from inbound demand, up 3% from

business travel and tourism in Japan). (2) The company is considering hiking shinkansen

Relative performance chartfares as a set with service improvements. (3) It aims to announce the start date for the

maglev Chuo Shinkansen before the end of the year, but it has no plans to update the

financial simulation that was disclosed along with the release of 26/3 H1 results unless

deemed necessary. We raise our operating profit forecasts to reflect stronger shinkansen

ridership than we had previously envisioned. Our new target price is ¥4,500. We calculate

our target price by applying a P/E of around 8x to our 27/3 EPS forecast. As before, we

use a discount of around 50–60% to the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex financials)

average P/E.

We forecast 27/3 operating profits of ¥793.4bn, assume share buybacks of ¥50.0bn

in total

We raise our 27/3 forecast for rail revenues to a 2% y-y rise (versus guidance calling for a

2% decline), from our previous forecast for flat growth. We expect rail revenues to peg