Korea: July exports remained exceptionally strong, despite the quarter-start payback effect

Research evidence excerpt

Korea: July exports remained exceptionally strong, despite the quarter-start payback effect

2026.

For example, the DDR4 8Gb contract price increased by 352.8% y-o-y to USD24 in July

from USD19.0 in Q2 2026 (Q1: USD12.5).

When the price slope steepens, the incentive to pull forward transactions rises on both

sides of the market:

• Suppliers have an incentive to accelerate shipment and revenue recognition within the

quarter.

• Customers have an incentive to secure inventory before the next contract-price increase.

• The stronger the price increase, the larger the quarter-end shipment peak and the

subsequent quarter-start payback.

June was particularly susceptible to this mechanism. It was both a quarter-end and a half-

year-end month, while semiconductor exports reached an unprecedented USD44.8bn,

leading to the subsequent decline in July primarily reflecting payback from that exceptional

shipment concentration.

However, with July’s daily semiconductor exports (USD1.71bn) remaining slightly above

the Q2 2026 average (USD1.68bn), the underlying run rate appears stable.

Export breadth has improved, but incremental growth remains AI-centric

The fact that 19 of the 20 major categories recorded growth is encouraging. Nevertheless,

semiconductors accounted for around 69% of the year-on-year increase in total exports.

Much of the strength in computers, electrical equipment and steel was also linked to AI

and data-centre investment.

• AI exports and automobile exports are increasingly decoupled: In both the US and

EU, semiconductor and enterprise-SSD exports increased sharply while automobile

exports declined. AI capital expenditure is benefiting Korea’s technology complex, while

tariffs and production localisation are constraining traditional vehicle exports.