ASEAN palm oil

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN palm oil

Global Markets Research

2 August 2026ASEAN palm oil

EQUITY: AGRI-RELATED

Key newsflow (July 25 – 31) Research Analysts

ASEAN Agri-Related

Raghavendra Divekar, CFA - NSMQuick Note raghavendra.divekar@nomura.com

+603 2027 6893

Fig. 1: Nomura CPO price gauge

Research Associates We expect CPO prices to remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 6 August 2026

Amol Dongre - NSFSPL

Source: Nomura estimates

We expect CPO prices to remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 6 August 2026

The spot price for CPO (crude palm oil) was flat w-w at MYR4,498/MT in the week ended

30 July, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). This was largely due to

higher crude oil prices due to the resumption of the West-Asia conflict and higher exports

being balanced by weaker soybean oil prices. For the next week, we expect prices to

remain steady as higher crude oil prices are balanced by higher production in Malaysia.

Overall, we expect the average CPO price to remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 6 August.

However, if exports strengthen and crude oil prices rise further, CPO prices could rise to

~MYR4,600/MT, in our view.

Indonesia raises 2026 palm biodiesel allocation to 16.8 million kiloliters

According to 30 July news article in Bloomberg (link), Indonesia's government has raised

its biodiesel allocation to 16.75 million kiloliters, up from 15.65 million kiloliters, to support

the B50 blending mandate that took effect on 1 July, according to the Indonesian Biofuel

Producers Association (Aprobi). The association received a ministerial decree confirming

the higher allocation, according to Aprobi's Catra de Thouars.

Our view: With Indonesia on track to fully launch its B50 mandate from October 2026, an

increase was largely expected. With the biodiesel allocation only raised by 7%, we think