Constructive outlook maintained: Netherlands EBITDA to recover in 2Q while Indian operations to remain resilient; retain Buy and INR240 TP

Research evidence excerpt

Constructive outlook maintained: Netherlands EBITDA to recover in 2Q while Indian operations to remain resilient; retain Buy and INR240 TP

Global Markets Research

Tata Steel TISC.NS TATA IN 3 August 2026

EQUITY: METALS & MINING

RatingConstructive outlook maintained Remains Buy

Target priceNetherlands EBITDA to recover in 2Q while Indian Remains INR 240

operations to remain resilient; retain Buy and INR240 TP

Closing price INR 190 31 July 2026We maintain our view that concerns over Netherlands operations appear overdone

Management highlighted the company’s strong environmental performance. Addressing Implied upside +26.3%regulatory concerns around the coke ovens raised last quarter, management stated that

undercooked coke emissions have been reduced by 98% and are now operating well Market Cap (USD mn) 24,825.7

below industry emission benchmarks. While discussions with regulators regarding an ADT (USD mn) 63.1

earlier closure of the coke ovens remain ongoing, management appeared more confident

on the issue. We continue to believe that a shutdown ahead of the planned FY29

decarbonization timeline is unlikely, given the operational complexity and safety Relative performance chart

considerations associated with a phased closure.

2QFY27 preview: Netherlands EBITDA to recover; India margins to moderate q-q

We forecast 6% y-y volume growth for the Indian operations, driven by higher capacity

utilization. For Europe, we model broadly flat volumes, although a successful trial run of

the Direct Sheet Plant (DSP) line could provide upside to our estimates. We expect

Netherlands EBITDA to recover sharply to EUR34/t in 2QFY27 from EUR2/t in 1QFY27,

supported by higher realization. In contrast, we expect Indian operations to witness a