Very strong 1Q on large gas trading gains: Transmission volume guidance revised upwards; gas marketing may see reversal in 1Q gains; maintain Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Very strong 1Q on large gas trading gains: Transmission volume guidance revised upwards; gas marketing may see reversal in 1Q gains; maintain Buy

Global Markets Research

GAIL GAIL.NS GAIL IN 3 August 2026

EQUITY: INDIA RENEWABLES & CLEAN ENERGY

RatingVery strong 1Q on large gas trading gains Remains Buy

Target priceTransmission volume guidance revised upwards; gas Remains INR 195

marketing may see reversal in 1Q gains; maintain Buy

Closing price INR 181 31 July 2026Gas transmission volume beats estimates; large trading gains due to West Asia crisis

GAIL’s 1Q adjusted EBITDA was INR63.8bn (Fig.1), up 250% q-q and 156% above our estimate. Implied upside +7.7%Overall numbers came out strong and ahead of our estimates for all business segments. However,

our EBITDA estimates are largely unchanged, as we expect a partial reversal in Gas Marketing Market Cap (USD mn) 12,507.0

earnings over the next three quarters, and LPG/LHC business may also see moderation in earnings ADT (USD mn) 18.8

from 2Q levels due to lower Saudi CP prices. Gas Transmission volume guidance being raised to

123mmscmd (from 115-119mmscmd earlier) was a key positive, in our view, and there could be

further upside risks to this if the West Asia crisis were to be resolved earlier than expected. Relative performance chart

Segment wise summary:

• Gas transmission: Volume at 122.4mmscmd in 1Q was up 3% q-q (7% ahead of our

estimate). FY27E guidance was 123mmscmd (115-119mmscmd earlier).

• Gas marketing: Volumes impacted by West Asia war, came in at 94mmscmd, down 8% q-q

and 4% below our estimate. Segment EBIT of INR34.8bn was significantly ahead of our

estimate of INR7.1bn (1Q: INR5.2bn) due to a mismatch between 9-month JCC (Japan Crude