India steel: India rebar prices recovery continues after prolonged weakness while flat pricing remains stable

Research evidence excerpt

India steel: India rebar prices recovery continues after prolonged weakness while flat pricing remains stable

YTD). On the domestic front, NMDC

(NMDC IN, Not rated) reduced the prices of lumps and fines with effect from July-26 by INR250/t

and INR150/t to INR5,450/t and INR4,700/t, respectively, and they remained unchanged w-w.

China’s property sector weakness persists

As highlighted in a recent Chart Alert note (link), China's property sector continues to show limited

signs of a broad-based recovery, with contract sales by the top 100 developers declining 18.3%

y-y in July’26, worsening from a 9.6% decline in June. While tier-1 cities continue to stabilize,

supported by stronger secondary home sales, activity across lower-tier cities remains weak,

reinforcing the ongoing K-shaped recovery in the housing market. We believe the persistent

weakness in the broader property sector is likely to keep construction steel demand subdued,

limiting any meaningful recovery in China's domestic steel consumption despite pockets of

resilience in major cities.

US imposes 10% forced labor tariffs; Metals continue to face higher Section 232 duties

The US has imposed a permanent 10% tariff on most Indian exports under Section 301 following its

investigation into forced labor practices, with India’s tariff rate retained at 10%, lower than the initially

proposed 12.5%. However, metals remain outside the scope of this relief, as steel, aluminum,

copper, auto components and certain derivative products will continue to be subject to Section 232

tariffs of 25% or 50%, in addition to normal MFN duties. Moreover, metal exports to the US

constitute only a small share of India’s overall exports, limiting the overall impact on Indian players.