MediaTek 2Q26: Another upward revision to ASIC & more

Research evidence excerpt

MediaTek 2Q26: Another upward revision to ASIC & more

31 July 2026

Mark Li

+852 2123 2645

Asia Semiconductors and Equipment & Global Memory mark.li@bernsteinsg.com

MediaTek Inc Yipin Cai, CFA

+852 2123 2669

Rating yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Edward Hou, CFA

Price Target +852 2123 2623

edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com

2454.TT 4,380.00 TWD

Revised up the 1st ASIC project guidance. 2026 contribution was revised to “exceed US Close Date 31 Jul 2026

$2B” from US$2B. For 2027, with a larger TAM (US$80B guided up from US$70-80B) and a 2454.TT Close Price (TWD) 3,555.00

larger market share (15-20% from 10-15%), ASIC revenue could reach US$16B. Price Target (TWD) 4,380.00

Upside/(Downside) 23%

Expecting share gain in 2028 through the 2nd ASIC project. MediaTek is on track on yield 52-Week Range 4,970.00/1,130.00

& reliability of packaging (i.e. EMIB & substrate) & guided to ready 448Gbps SerDes in 2H27 ASIAX 1,808.17

to bring the 2nd project to production in early 2028. The gross margin (GM) of the 1st & 2nd FYE Dec

project will be similar, but the 2nd one is much more powerful, thus higher ASP, higher gross Div Yield 1.5%

profit dollars & operating margin accretive. With both projects contributing, MediaTek aims to Market Cap (TWD) (B) 5,701.85

gain significant share in 2028. EV (TWD) (B) 5,554.21

Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

A US$5B budget for "optionality". The board approved a discretionary US$5B financing Absolute (%) 148.6 (16.3) 102.0 159.5

budget to “capitalize on massive data center opportunities”. We believe this is related to ASIAX (%) 10.6 (9.0) 3.5 24.1

securing critical supply. We also noted the company mentioned memory & substrate as key Relative (%) 138.0 (7.2) 98.5 135.4

components in the prepared remarks. Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.