Asia Semiconductors and Equipment & Global Memory: TSMC 2Q26: Higher revenue & higher capex

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Semiconductors and Equipment & Global Memory: TSMC 2Q26: Higher revenue & higher capex

16 July 2026

Asia Semiconductors and Equipment & Global Memory

TSMC 2Q26: Higher revenue & higher capex

Raising full-year revenue guide to over 40% growth while keeping price discipline Mark Li

+852 2123 2645 again indicates TSMC is conservative. TSMC reiterated being a trustworthy supplier &

mark.li@bernsteinsg.com won’t squeeze customers with sudden price hikes. Price thus can’t be a near-term upside

and shipment is capped by capacity too. This implies raising 2026 full-year revenue from

Edward Hou, CFA over 30% to over 40% growth is simply because the prior guide was overly conservative.

+852 2123 2623

edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com This also explains why today TSMC expressed adamantly not to finance customers or

customers’ customers with equity stake.

Yipin Cai, CFA

+852 2123 2669 Hence lifting 2026 capex to US$60-64B should be well justified by demand. TSMC

yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com always gives yearly capex guide at the start of a year & seldom revises it beyond the guided

range afterwards. TSMC today however revised 2026’s capex guide from US$52-56B

to US$60-64B, as AI demand turned stronger over the past 3 months. We’re mindful of

market volatility but agree with TSMC that AI demand sustainability actually improved in this

period. The recent pullback hence should be an opportunity to build more on AI stocks.

3Q26 gross margin (GM) missing slightly is actually positive. The miss is small and

is due to stronger N2 ramp resulting 3-4% (vs. 2-3%) GM drag in 2H26. The stronger

ramp brings more revenue now and later also operating leverage & thus more profits. As

smartphone demand is unlikely to be stronger, we wonder if it is AMD contributing the N2

strength.