APPLE TRACKER (May): iPhone share gains continue, but unit growth slows to 2% YoY and modestly below FQ3 expectations

Research evidence excerpt

APPLE TRACKER (May): iPhone share gains continue, but unit growth slows to 2% YoY and modestly below FQ3 expectations

mbined April and May iPhone sell-in volumes totaled 35.9 million

Phoebe Sun units, which is 67% of the consensus FQ3'26 shipment forecast of 53.3 million units and

+1 917 344 8481 64% of our 56.1 million unit estimate. This compares with a historical FQ3 average of 72%, phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com

indicating a slightly slower start to the quarter. Slightly worse, the first 2 months of FQ3

iPhone revenue reached $31.4 billion. This represents 58% of both the consensus FQ3'26 Edward Hou, CFA

+852 2123 2623 revenue expectation and our forecast, below the historical FQ3 average of 69%.

edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com

For foundry/TSMC: Lower “618” discount on iPhone 17 & weaker sales of iPhone 17e

Yipin Cai, CFA has made TSMC’s N3P’s shipment softer than the precedessor N3E’s for 2 months, but

+852 2123 2669

yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com we believe overall Apple still holds up better vs. its smartphone peers. Even if Apple or

any mobile customers release leading-node capacity, the capacity will be refilled by AI

Shirley Yang, CFA applications and TSMC won't experience revenue loss.

+852 2123 2660

shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com For Memory: the DRAM content YoY increase was 27% in May, vs. 20% increase from

2024 to 2025 on full-year basis. We will monitor how memory price hike affects this.

Ethan Xu

+852 2123 2634

ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com For the rest of Apple’s supply chain: sentiment over Luxshare and Largan are strong

as iPhone shipment is stronger than Android’s, and each of them have made steadily

Alrick Shaw progress in AI-related business. For Sony, however, there will likely be no upgrades in CIS