China: RatingDog PMI confirms domestic softening

Research evidence excerpt

China: RatingDog PMI confirms domestic softening

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

03 August 2026

China: RatingDog PMI confirms

domestic softening

• July RatingDog manufacturing PMI slows to 50.9 Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

• Domestic demand and production soften in line with NBS readings

Tongfang Yuan

• Export orders hold up well, pointing to still resilient external demand (852) 2800-0085

• Price indices cool down further, with output prices falling faster than input tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

• Politburo signals faster fiscal deployment, while incremental easing remains

possible if growth softens

RatingDog’s July manufacturing PMI confirmed a softening in domestic

conditions, in line with key NBS readings. Domestic demand and production

components slowed notably, although remaining in expansionary territory.

Headline index slowed to 50.9 from 51.7 in June, notably below expectations

(JPMe: 52.5; consensus: 52.0). New orders slowed to 50.9, down 1.8pts from June,

while the output reading eased to 51.5, down 1.4pts.

External demand turned out stronger than what NBS readings had suggested.

Export orders rose 0.8pt to 50.2, returning to expansionary territory after two

months in contraction, while NBS export orders dipped 0.5pt to 49.6.

Nevertheless, we still expect July’s export data to soften modestly, as actual order

deliveries may have been negatively affected by severe weather that disrupted

major port operations mid-month.

Despite renewed tensions (and a truce) in the Middle East, upstream and input price

pressures continued to cool, with the index down 0.7pt to 51.7. The decline was

asymmetric and greater in the output price index, which fell at a faster pace (down

2.1pts to 50.1).