EM FX Daily Report - 3rd August 2026. Mon Aug 03 2026

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX Daily Report - 3rd August 2026. Mon Aug 03 2026

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nmatthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 03 August 2026

EM FX

RUB Off the highs in usd/rub on Friday as spot dribbled lower to 79.25/50. Attention is drawn to

Wednesday's August Fx purchase plan announcement by the Ministry of Finance. This could

provide the impetus to break through 80.00 decisively. August is also historically a shaky

month for ruble. Until Wednesday I would expect 79.00/25 to provide good support.

ZAR USDZAR lower this morning after Trump paused strikes over the weekend, although the

reaction is fairly muted as the market clearly struggles to believe that the talks will yield an

agreement in the near term. Personally I don’t disagree and struggle to see the IRGC/Vahidi

allow the Strait of Hormuz to open, and so hesitant to chase anything here. USDZAR has also

stopped reacting to the dollar weakness led by yen, and so remain happy to sit neutral in the

short term in ZAR. In terms of flow we small interest from all sectors to buy ZAR last week.

TRY USDTRY continues to trade along with the current depreciation path around state bank offers at

47.5425. Volumes on the offers have been heavier than usual since Friday, partly as the sharp

JPY move prompted some reduction in long TRY positions. The flow has been absorbed

comfortably by the state banks.

Our Türkiye view is unchanged, as we remain long TRY. A near-term change in the FX

framework still looks unlikely, with real TRY appreciation remaining central to the disinflation

and financial-stability strategy, and lower than expected July CPI reinforces that view. Oil

remains the main risk. A sustained move higher would weaken the inflation and current-account