G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Matt Pheasant AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nmatthew.v.pheasant@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 03 August 2026

EUR Well have been in the markets for some time and not seen much like the back end of last week.

Charlie has written some good stuff on the yen so I won’t regurgitate but what I will say is the

action is unprecedented in nature and quite a big deal in my opinion, my questioning around the

BOJ not hiking given the timing there had to be a bigger plan was certainly proved correct!!

Whilst the discussion has morphed somewhat for now, concern around Warsh’s inflation

fighting credentials raised post FOMC presser on Wednesday not helped by suggestions he is

considering making things even more opaque by reducing the number of Fed meetings as well

so whilst the rest of the FX market caught up in the headlights a little at the end of last week

should continue to raise eyebrows for the dollar, maybe the data can help regain its composure

with payrolls upcoming on Friday.

Staying short usdjpy, I don’t think this is over. Elsewhere have reduced most things elsewhere,

wait for the labour market data but am impressed with he way the euro bounced back post

eurjpy suggestions.

The euro remains resilient post Fed and even when it was hit on the eurjpy comments bounced

back quickly. Whilst I was tactically bullish post Warsh, I can maybe start to see an argument

for more protracted upside given the resilience of the Eurozone economy and fresh central bank

concerns elsewhere plus energy prices back down this morning given the latest Iran flip flop but

with things moving quickly elsewhere happy to have reduced longs for now and await the US

data. We are into decent resistance here technically with the 100 day (1.1569) and downtrend