Chevron Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Demonstrating the Power of the Portfolio’s Potential Albeit with a 3Q26 CPC Led Speed Bump

Research evidence excerpt

Chevron Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Demonstrating the Power of the Portfolio’s Potential Albeit with a 3Q26 CPC Led Speed Bump

025A 2026E 2027E

and downtime upstream. CEO Wirth did bless the $6bn cash flow forecast from Q1 2.18 1.41A 3.99

Q2 1.77 6.06A 3.68

TCO assuming $70 per bbl Brent despite the impact of the disruptions. Q3 1.86 5.51 3.60

Q4 1.52 4.81 3.38

One of the core focuses of management has been to deliver more consistent FY 7.29 17.77 14.65

operating results so investors can take full advantage of both the record refining

Style Exposureenvironment and a constructive commodity price backdrop. The strength of 2Q26

operating results, which featured 1% higher upstream volumes, record refining

throughput, and a reduction in the company's full-year capex expectations,

suggests that the company may have turned the corner from an execution

standpoint. 2Q26 results also provided an opportunity to provide more detail on its

2.7 GW BTM power agreement with Microsoft, which is expected to reach FID

later this year and deliver mid-teens returns. Interestingly, the company indicated

it was in advanced discussions to further scale its power business. CFO Bonner

noted how the company was fully on track to achieve its key operational and

financial objectives through 2030, with a core focus on providing the building

blocks for the next phase of cash flow growth beginning in the next decade. These

include new entries in Libya and Suriname as well as emerging opportunities to

scale production from special situations such as Venezuela and Iraq. In Venezuela,

the company has further grown production by 30 MBo/d over the past 6 months to

280 MBo/d and sees a path to further grow production by 50% by year-end 2028

(~125 Mbo/d of incremental oil production).