Exxon Mobil Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Upstream Strength Met with Mild Disappointment Downstream in a Volatile Operating Environment

Research evidence excerpt

Exxon Mobil Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Upstream Strength Met with Mild Disappointment Downstream in a Volatile Operating Environment

Arun Jayaram AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-8541 03 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We maintain an Overweight rating on XOM. XOM has a

balanced portfolio across Upstream, Downstream and

Chemical/Specialty Products segments, with a low dividend

breakeven and torque to a potential demand recovery over the

medium term. In the Upstream segment, XOM should deliver

substantial FCF growth from its unique high-margin assets in

Guyana and differentiated production growth strategy in the

Permian Basin. XOM has delivered on its major projects, which

should positively contribute to earnings growth over the

YTD 1m 3m 12m medium term. Additionally, XOM’s low dividend coverage

Abs 29.2% 13.7% 0.7% 39.2% breakeven should also help protect the downside in a weaker

Rel 19.8% 13.8% -3.2% 21.1%

commodity price and demand environment. XOM has a healthy

Company Data recurring dividend, with the recent increase in the base dividend

Shares O/S (mn) 4,372 highlighting the company’s confidence in sustaining strong

52-week range ($) 176.41-105.53 performance over the long term.

Market cap ($ mn) 679,583.70

Exchange rate 1.00 Valuation

Free float (%) 99.7%

3M ADV (mn) 16.78 Our price target of $166 per share uses a 2027E FCF/EV yield

3M ADV ($ mn) 2,473.4 of ~6.50% at current strip pricing. We believe that XOM’s

Volatility (90 Day) 30 diversified business model and business scale warrant a

Index S&P 500

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 13|17|1 premium to its peer group.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

Performance Drivers$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E