Japan SPE sector: Apr–Jun 2026 results at Lam Research

Research evidence excerpt

Japan SPE sector: Apr–Jun 2026 results at Lam Research

Japan SPE sector: Apr–Jun 2026 Global Markets Research 30 July 2026

results at Lam Research

EQUITY: JAPAN SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT

Research AnalystsUpward revision to 2026 forecasts, including for

Japan semiconductor productionWFE market equipment

Atsushi Yoshioka - NSCQuick Note atsushi.yoshioka@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1176

Jul–Sep guidance higher than consensus forecasts for both sales and gross margin

Lam Research released 26/6 Q4 (Apr–Jun 2026) results on 29 July (local time), reporting

that NAND sales more than doubled q-q, while total sales rose 15% q-q to $6,722mn

(versus the 28 July Bloomberg consensus forecast of $6,682mn). The company

announced Jul–Sep (Q1) sales guidance for $8,100mn (up 20% q-q), well above the

consensus forecast of $7,130mn. The non-GAAP gross margin improved by just over 2ppt

q-q to 52% in Q4, above the upper end of the market consensus and guidance range, and

Q1 guidance also is higher than the consensus forecast at 52%. Lam Research cited

pricing as one reason for this. Currently, we do not expect any substantive growth in gross

margins at Japanese front-end equipment companies in 27/3 H1, and we will be

interested to see if they can achieve similar improvements.

Like some competitors, Lam Research raised 2026 outlooks for WFE market and

advanced packaging

The company raised its 2026 WFE market forecast from about $140bn (with a bias to the

upside), to the $150–155bn range (y-y growth in the mid-30% range). Lam Research still

expects WFE spending in China to be flat to slightly up y-y. The company expects the

WFE market to grow sharply in 2027 as well. It appears to be assuming the strongest

growth for DRAM, followed by advanced logic/foundry and then NAND. In view of market