Global AI Trend Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Global AI Trend Tracker

Global Markets Research

30 July 2026Global AI Trend Tracker

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

Microsoft’s June quarter results read-through Research Analysts

China Technology

Bing Duan - NIHKQuick Note bing.duan1@nomura.com

+852 2252 2141Microsoft (MSFT US, Not rated) reported 4QFY26 (Jun-26 quarter) earnings on 30 July

2026 after the US market close, and management hosted an earnings call on the same Joel Ying, CFA - NIHK

day, discussing AI infrastructure, AI platform, applications and agents, as well as its joel.ying@nomura.com

outlook for 1QFY27E and FY27E. Management expects capex of over USD50bn in +852 2252 2153

1QFY27E, while its actual capex guidance for calendar year 2026 is unchanged but

adjusted to USD175bn from an accounting perspective (previously USD190bn), due

to some DCs shifting from finance lease to operating lease, and management expects

capex to continue to grow in FY27E. Management also expects free cash flow to

remain positive in FY27E. We note that AIDC infra stocks have faced a sharp sell-off

lately, partially due to concerns about the sustainability of capex growth and free cash flow

pressure from hyperscale AI platforms. We think MSFT’s outlook for continued capex

growth and positive free cash flow in FY27E may help to relieve the concern on AI infra

stocks, and we like global optical transceiver leader Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH,

Buy), and major PCB / CCL suppliers such as Shengyi Tech (600183 CH, Buy) and

WUS PCB (002463 CH, Buy, covered by Anne Lee).

Core business performance

• Microsoft Cloud’s revenue surpassed USD59.3bn in 4QFY26, up 27% y-y, reflecting

strong demand for Azure and AI applications.

• Commercial bookings increased 18% y-y (excl. the impact from OpenAI [unlisted]),