ANA Holdings: Share price likely to rise sharply in light of results

Research evidence excerpt

ANA Holdings: Share price likely to rise sharply in light of results

Global Markets Research

29 July 2026ANA Holdings

9202.T 9202 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TRANSPORTATION

RatingShare price likely to rise sharply in light of results Remains Buy

Target price

Profits well ahead of guidance, little damage from higher fuel prices, Increased from 4,000 JPY 4,200

supply cuts on domestic passenger routes likely to start too

Closing price JPY 3,221We reiterate Buy rating, raise forecasts on strong performance versus guidance 29 July 2026

We reiterate our Buy rating on ANA Holdings. We identify four key takeaways from 27/3 Q1

Implied upside +30.4%results and the briefing. (1) The company generated overall operating profits of ¥20.8bn (versus

our forecast of ¥25.1bn and the 29 July consensus forecast of ¥4.3bn) as profits at the air

transportation segment beat guidance by ¥29.0bn. (2) The fuel price of $182.5/bbl in Q1 was

higher than our assumption of $160/bbl, but cargo rates and international passenger numbers

Relative performance chartcontributed to profits. ANA retained its full-year guidance in view of the uncertainty about fuel

prices, and will consider an update when it releases Q2 results. (3) It said the elasticity of

passenger numbers on international routes to higher fuel prices was lower than it had expected

in Q1, providing evidence of the resilience of earnings. (4) ANA confirmed that it plans to adjust

supply on loss-making domestic passenger routes by adjusting timetables and communicating

with the Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC), in line with the conclusions of the May meeting

of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's (MLIT) panel of experts.

We raise our forecasts in light of Q1 results. We obtain our new target price of ¥4,200 by