INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

AUGUST 3, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• MoU Mia, here we go again. Trump said new Iran talks resume today after calling off a planned

strike. Iran-Oman negotiations over the Strait are in the final stages. Odds of SoH normalization by YE

rose 8%pts and Brent fell 5%. Our view is unchanged and still anchored in military realities.

• We think the AI/MOMO factor correction is over but on the way up, the surprise could be higher

thematic dispersion. Hyperscalers have reassured on AI demand (cloud ARR, backlog surge, ROI

frameworks), while the market seems to have shrugged off Qwen 3.8-Max.

• We took down factor hedges and think one should add directional AI exposure via consensus

longs while looking at structural shorts that have squeezed, notably in Europe.

• Macro remains supportive — Asia July PMIs at fresh highs, Q2 earnings tracking strong and

Schlegel’s TPM attractive — but the risk to hedge now is likely Fed credibility / long-end rates

volatility (Warsh even floated fewer FOMC meetings). History says the next 10–20bp higher in 10Y

USTs could pressure Equity indices, especially if DXY is lower too.

• Gold remains one hedge. Upside is capped for now, but Tether and central-bank demand are

coming back. As gold stabilizes, 3–6m carry-efficient upside via call spreads/ratios looks attractive.

• JPM’s Tanase is out with a timely note on US-Japan coordinated yen-buying intervention — the first

since 1998. Key points: 1) USD/JPY returned to pre-intervention levels in the weeks after June 1998;

2) US yen-buying versus EUR suggests this is not a “second Plaza Accord,” but driven by broader

considerations; 3) the probability of coordinated intervention driving USD/JPY below 150 is low.