Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe, Middle East and Africa Emerging Markets Weekly

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

03 August 2026

Europe, Middle East and Africa

Emerging Markets Weekly

EMEA EM: Balance of risks shifting towards more hawkish stances EM, Economic and Policy Research

Poland’s July CPI release last week reinforced our view that the inflation story is Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

gradually shifting from benign headline prints to a more concerning core backdrop. (44 20) 7742-2466

While headline inflation rose to 3.0%oya largely due to fuel tax normalization, the nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

more important takeaway is that core inflation likely accelerated to around

3.2%oya and appears to be on an upward trajectory, making NBP rate cuts Jose Cerveira

(44-20) 7742-3556

increasingly difficult to justify and gradually tilting the balance of risks towards jose.a.cerveira@jpmorgan.com

hikes. Looking ahead to this week, headline inflation in both the Czech Republic J.P. Morgan Securities plc

and Hungary should remain relatively contained, with limited direct impact from Sonja Keller

July fuel prices. However, underlying inflation dynamics warrant closer attention. (27-11) 507-0376

In the Czech Republic, core inflation remains persistently above target despite sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com

weak growth, while in Hungary the expiry of several voluntary price agreements JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg

Branch

should begin to push core measures higher from recent lows. Turkey is also set to

Anatoliy A Shal

provide an important signal, with July CPI expected to show a renewed pickup in

(971) 4561-2005

monthly inflation momentum, reflecting stronger services inflation and rising fuel anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com