Thematic Research: Brazil Gaming: Brazil election nears; Betting rules likely tightening

Research evidence excerpt

Thematic Research: Brazil Gaming: Brazil election nears; Betting rules likely tightening

J P M O R G A N Global Equity Research

03 August 2026

Thematic Research: Brazil

Gaming

Brazil election nears; Betting rules likely tightening

Brazil’s online betting market is growing fast and becoming a key political topic, European Leisure, Hotels & Gaming

ACamplified by heightened visibility since the World Cup. While we think fundamentals Estelle Weingrod

for the industry remain intact, the time is ripe for tightening regulation, especially vis- (44-20) 7742-8502

à-vis taxes and marketing. Brazil is heading into a polarized general election in estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com

October, a period when local equities have historically underperformed and when J.P. Morgan Securities plc

“popular appeal” issues can quickly shape the agenda. Betting is already in the Karan Puri AC

spotlight because it is being linked to household stress and public-health concerns, (44-20) 7742-8342

karan.puri@jpmorgan.com

following a sharp rise in gambling activity and elevated delinquency indicators. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

President Lula, who is running for reelection, is slightly ahead in the polls and has

Avni Garg

suggested that he favors a ban on betting. However, it is widely understood that the (91-22) 6157-3431

betting ban would greatly favor illegal operations. The alternative appears to center avni.garg@jpmchase.com

on higher taxes and tighter regulation, as detailed in the report. We think the near-term J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

earnings impact is generally manageable for listed companies in our EU coverage: Co-head of Emerging Markets Equity

incremental measures are more likely to slow growth than break unit economics, with Strategy and Head of LatAm and