Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Takeaways Post Mgmt Follow Up; Updating Model

Research evidence excerpt

Ionis Pharmaceuticals: Takeaways Post Mgmt Follow Up; Updating Model

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

reimbursed via medical exception. Without pointing to specific analogues, Prev Cur Δ

mgmt estimates this process can take 3-4 weeks and IONS will offer a dose (1 EPS - 26E ($) (3.86) (3.92) -1.4%

month) and potentially up to two doses, if necessary, to help bridge patients if EPS - 27E ($) (2.45) (2.66) -8.6%

the reimbursement process takes a while. Mgmt declined to share their

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec) expectations for Tryngolza’s GTN, but noted their objective is to minimize

discounts and rebates. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

• Meta-analysis post CARDIO-TTRansform trial to compare silencers Q1 (0.93) (0.56)A

only. In addition to the CARDIO-TTRansform results themselves at ESC, Q2 0.70 (1.17)A

Q3 (0.80) (1.32)

mgmt noted that we can expect to see a meta-analysis evaluating data for the Q4 (1.43) (0.87)

silencers which we understand could include data from CARDIO-TTransform FY (2.37) (3.92) (2.66)

and HELIOS-B. While we do not expect eplontersen to come to market in

Style Exposure

ATTR-CM, we think the market could look to this analysis to help shine light

on what could be behind the diverging results of these outcomes trials.

• Any potential US filing for Wainua post CARDIO-TTRansform in

AstraZeneca’s court. While Wainua’s filing for ATTR-CM remains on the

slide showing potential 2026 milesontes, mgmt noted that it has been on the

scorecard from the beginning of the year and there is no update on this front yet.

They reaffirmed that this decision will ultimately come from AstraZeneca. We

do not expect Wainua to be approved in ATTR-CM despite the nice signal as

monotherapy.

• Limited color on 3Q/4Q pacing for Tryngolza sales. Mgmt stayed away