Newell Brands Inc: Underlying Sales and Profitability Finally Improving Even Excluding One-Time Tariff Recovery Benefits; Model Update Post Q2

Research evidence excerpt

Newell Brands Inc: Underlying Sales and Profitability Finally Improving Even Excluding One-Time Tariff Recovery Benefits; Model Update Post Q2

S - 27E ($) 0.69 0.64 -6.8%

note that some patience may still be required given added pressure on margins and as

underlying categories remain stressed, but we believe NWL continues to be an Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

attractive investment for long-term value investors. 2Q26 Beat our/Street’s/ Adj. EPS ($)

management’s own guidance top to bottom including 2Q26 core sales growth of 2025A 2026E 2027E

+2.3% and normalized EPS of $0.42, We are hosting CFO Mark Erceg on Monday Q1 (0.01) (0.05)A (0.00)

Q2 0.24 0.42A 0.27

August 3rd at 1:00pm for a fireside chat to discuss not only the quarter but the Q3 0.17 0.20 0.20

path ahead. The connection details are in your inbox. Q4 0.18 0.19 0.18

FY 0.57 0.77 0.64

• Raised Guidance. Management raised FY26 guidance including increasing

core sales by +50 bps at the midpoint, incorporating better consumption and Style Exposure

anticipation for innovation launches for the back half, and also raised

normalized EPS expectations by $0.17 at both lower and higher ends of range,

but this is due to fully flowing through $0.17 benefit from IEEPA tariff refund

that was incurred in FY25 (see our first reaction here for more color).

• Specifically to Q3, core sales is still expected to grow slightly

sequentially at the midpoint (guided to up +2%-3% for both core and

net sales) and Q3 outlook on margins and normalized EPS are an

improvement Y/Y despite input costs now estimated to be ~$200M

(from $150M previously) for FY26. While noting the one-time benefit

from FY25 tariff refund is fully flowed through into the FY26

normalized EPS guidance raise, we are cognizant that input cost