Comet Holding: H1‘26 wrap up: Discovery value remains with material upside to estimates on undemanding multiple

Research evidence excerpt

Comet Holding: H1‘26 wrap up: Discovery value remains with material upside to estimates on undemanding multiple

management scott.silver@jpmorgan.com

would rather under-promise to over-deliver. Key Changes (FYE Dec)

• 2027 and 2028 earnings potential not yet recognised. We see plenty of Revenue - 26E (CHF mn) Prev552 Cur562 1.8%Δ

evidence in the earnings call suggesting that Comet’s PCT business should Revenue - 27E (CHF mn) 692 748 8.1%

comfortably outgrow WFE through to 2028. There is clear traction in Synertia Adj. EPS - 26E (CHF) 5.67 7.60 34.0%

(both Generator and Match) with a broadening of the customer base, and high Adj. EPS - 27E (CHF) 14.48 17.41 20.2%

Adj. EBITDA - 26E (CHF mn) 77 95 23.8%

volume orders looking increasingly credible, implying that market share gains Adj. EBITDA - 27E (CHF mn) 161 190 17.8%

are coming. Management commentary suggests that order strength was

primarily DRAM and Logic related, with NAND demand (the main driver for Style Exposure

Comet) still to come. Beyond PCT, CA20 is gaining traction (note commentary

on repeat and multiple orders from customers). Importantly, the company will

not be supply constrained with management noting that they are on track to

have capacity for ~1bn CHF per annum with Penang coming online. We show

in Tables 1-3 below scenarios for PCT revenue, EBITDA and group earnings

for different WFE assumptions in 2028 - with WFE estimates for 2028 pushing

over $200B this would imply PCT revenue alone of >750 CHFm assuming

stable share, in turn translating to EPS of >35 CHF.

• Forecast and PT changes. We raise our Revenue estimates by 2/8/17% with

upgrades to all segments, but primarily driven by PCT. Adj. EBITDA estimates

increase(4/18/36%) on drop-through from higher revenue, and similarly on